@jameshelp It takes years. From my experience, when someone does "all the right things" yet still is frustrated with lack of progress two main culprits tend to be relevant: 1) impatience, and/or 2) failure to understand "failure" and/or the appropriate level of effort.
To the former, this shit takes a long time without gear. Despite that, it's still worth it to stay natty unless you sincerely intend to make a run at the stage. For most normies, just trying to impress the homies , get swole, finally kiss a girl, etc., gear is fuck and not worth the side effects. Just the attitude adjustment alone takes it off the table for me personally. I know way too many decent dudes that got on cycle and morphed into insufferable douchebags in a matter of weeks. I shit you not. Admittedly anecdotal so take that FWIW. So, you just gotta stick it out. Consist effort will always win out if you can maintain it for long enough.
To the later, it takes experience to understand what true failure and effort is. Most of us start out just counting sets and reps with the mind set "get to my tenth rep and I'm done!". As you gain experience you start to know your body better. Over time you connect your mind with the muscles and learn what type of effort
gets you results. This is not something someone can teach nor is it objective, hence why many lifters get stuck in a cycle of minimal progress sticking to a regiment that isn't sufficiently challenging.
To you question, the consensus is that it takes approx. 130 training hours (give or take) for normal people to noticeably change their physique. This varies greatly depending on your level of fitness (i.e. people with more progress to make tend to make it quicker while people already in shape tend to see more gradual results). Abs are 90% diet and arm size is all about triceps. Assuming you are achieving the appropriate level of effort in the gym, and with a good diet and PPL program hitting tris twice a week, I would estimate that you should see progress within 4 months or so.
Lastly, take progress picks after every lift (or weekly if preferred) and save them in an album on your phone. This will help you combat the lying ass mirror who tends to distort the reality. Whenever I feel stagnant I go to my album and look at myself a few months prior. It helps control the dysmorphia and assess areas that may be lacking.
