Initial 24.3 percentages BTWB (and percentages to shoot for, for quarterfinals)

T

talkingbunny

New member
edit: 10:06 am - bad math , 75 percent is 128 reps , or 2 rounds finished in second

ALSO IM AWARE THAT THIS DOESNT FACTOR SCALED..... READ MY POST. SO IM ADDING THE TRUE PERCENTAGE ESTIMATIONS OF WHAT YOU WILL SEE ON APP.

1 MUSCLE UP IN ROUND 4 - 90% (92 PERCENT ON APP ESTIMATE)

2 ROUNDS OF THRUSTERS AND MUSCLE UPS 75% (80% IN APP ESTIMATE)

1 MUSCLE UP 50% (60% IN APP)

with redos and good athletes holding their scores back these have tended to get harder not easier....so i would still aim for above with regards to the 75 and the 90.

roughly 20 percent are scaling right now..... the average scale and "no show" rate is 22 percent in the past so I'll factor that in after the RX percentages... we will call it 25% for this workout.

Finishing is 97th percentile

finish round 4 thrusters and add one muscle up - 90 percentile (149.1)

finish round 3 thrusters and add 3 muscle ups -75 percentile (138)

finish round 1 thrusters and 4 muscle ups - 50 percentile (111)

i tend to see these numbers get harder as it goes on

i believe 90 percent may be finish round 4

75 percent could be as much as finish round 3 as hard as that is to believe

that means getting through round 4 while absolutely decimated is going to be important. i know for me im gonna hit round 4 at about 14 minutes and not wanna do thrusters. i could do 3 singles and call it a day. but im gonna have do to a quick painful 4-3 and get to the bar by 1445, bc i can hit all 7 muscle ups for about 20 rounds if i needed to.

true percentages?s

if you factor in 25% scaled and no shows 90 percent becomes 92 percent

thus i believe finishing round 4 will be 92 percent and im too lazy to do the rest of the math

lets say a ballbark score of 1 muscle up in round 3 for 75%
 
@johndowling Yeah, I was thinking just 1 muscle up would have you in around 60th percentile honestly. The ga between athletes that can get one versus athletes who can’t is pretty damn large. Also the gap between athletes who can do 1-3 and can do 10-15 is also pretty big. At least in mine and surrounding gyms in my area. I’m shooting to finish two rounds in the second half and was thinking that would have me somewhere in the low to mid 80%s
 
@biblicalselfdefense Yup, I’d imagine there will be a notable jump in the number of folk taking in this one as scaled over the previous 2, then you have folk who do it RX, but are gonna stumble getting through the C2B, then you’re gonna have another heap who are going to struggle with that heavier bar, then you have the folk who after all that have to try get their first muscle up… like you I was thinking that even just getting 1 muscle up in would put you high in the 50’s / low in the 60’s.

Kinda expecting this is where my score is gonna fall - the heavier thruster is more of a limiter for me than the muscle ups. My goal is to get to the muscle ups and do what I can there so it’ll be interesting to see where that stacks up.
 
@johndowling I'm in the 60th percentile world wide currently and I was able to get 1 muscle up completed this morning. I think you're right with your guess. I'm gonna stay right at 60%
 
@johndowling There’s no way that holds right? This is probably around where I will wind up and I’m hoping for higher than 50th percentile 😅

I assume the athletes that have done this already lean heavily toward the athletes most excited for the games, at least that’s what I’m going to tell myself lol
 
@gospelknight would be the first time in open history that the scores have got easier as the weekend progressed. i did analysis for the last two and they got harder.

additionally 9 rounds is 92% on the app. see above

through 3 rounds i have at 87% on app
 
@oddrob that was my thought as well, but the data from past workouts doesnt support it. in other words, the elite folks holding back their scores, and monday redos seem to outweigh the fact that better crossfitters get their score in early
 
@gospelknight you realize i said before hand that 149.1 ie, ahead of 3.5 rounds would be 90%

and it was, right?

lets not hide the fact that to whatever degree im wrong, you are infinitely wronger. you thought i was being too harsh and it turns out that the workout was actually harder than what i said.

i was pretty dang accurate. while some people have come on the thread to admit that i was spot on...

well, theres still you
 
@talkingbunny You made the post. You assumed you’d have to finish to be 90% but said at the very least you’d have to finish round 9. All I said was that seemed far fetched and you doubled down. It turned out it took roughly 150 reps, not 156. 6 MUs in that WOD is a HUGE margin of difference to make up. Yes, I said I thought 142 seemed more likely but that wasn’t me making an entire post about it, citing sources, arguing the point, etc, etc. I said I assumed it would be less than 156 and you argued it would be 156 at minimum. You were clearly way off
 
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